America’s 250th.
US markets are closed for Independence Day; the only live tape over the holiday is soft crypto and oil easing toward pre-war lows as the Iran roadmap holds — bank-led Q2 earnings and the FOMC minutes headline the July 6 week.
Topic
The Full Read.
A collection of 29 issues
Market Closed, Observe.
US markets are closed for Independence Day; with equities dark the read is macro — June payrolls missed hard (57k vs 110k), oil sits at pre-war lows on Iran de-escalation, and the money-center banks headline the week ahead.
No Jobs, No Hike.
Soft June payrolls (+57K) spark a broad relief bounce with the chip complex rebounding under an SMH distribution; the cleanest read is Robinhood's fresh call flow, while Tesla's Q2 delivery print keeps its options two-sided.
Soft Landings.
Tape opens the second half softer as the three-day chip melt-up rolls over pre-market; the cleanest read is an ask-side call build in TSLA into Thursday's Q2 delivery print, while META gaps roughly +7% on its Superintelligence Labs push with no confirmed options lean yet.
Oil is a Slippery Slope.
AI-infrastructure melt-up rotates the tape — but an SMH full veto still caps the whole chip/AI complex at Weak. The one clean ungated read is TSLA (Moderate, into the Q2 delivery print), as the Iran/Hormuz ceasefire re-escalates and puts the oil tail back on.
Chips Down, Software Up.
Iran-relief risk-on, but the leadership rotates — money moves out of the crashed memory complex into oversold large-cap software while an SMH full veto caps every chip name, leaving Comcast's split and Rocket Lab's Iridium deal as the only fresh, un-vetoed catalysts.
The Weekend Print.
The weekend re-armed two-way oil risk — US forces struck Iranian missile and radar sites after a Hormuz tanker hit, though the strait held and crude fell ~4%. Core PCE ran hot at 3.4%, firming the hawkish hold, as the Nasdaq's 5th straight loss marked a rotation out of AI into defensives.
Too Much Dip On The Chips.
The memory-and-chip jump gives it back on day two — MU, SNDK and the SMH lead the Nasdaq lower while Thursday's beaten mega-caps steady underneath. A distribution of the winners, not broad risk-off, with core PCE sticky at 3.4% and the Russell reconstitution landing at the close.
Micron Beat. But, Semis Sold.
Micron's AI-memory blowout beats — but the chip-complex flow turns defensive: an SMH put/call veto caps the whole semiconductor sleeve at Weak, while the same memory-cost squeeze sells the hyperscalers and consumers (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, PLTR) on the other side of the trade.