Keep It Brief.

Futures rebound as oil tumbles on the weekend US-Iran de-escalation, but the chip complex stays gated on distribution and no clean directional call clears the bar into Wednesday's Fed decision and the Microsoft/Meta/Apple/Amazon earnings gauntlet.

Futures bounce Nasdaq-led after Friday's risk-off, but the rally is the SMH-gated chip complex (put skew +12%, a 4th distribution day) gapping into fade risk — no clean directional call as Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings loom.

Tape opens risk-off as a weekend US-Iran military escalation reopens the oil risk premium (WTI +4%) and memory names lead semis lower; the chip complex stays gated and the day's heaviest clean flow — call premium in Meta — is held back by the hostile macro tape.

Semis bounce 3-4% pre-market but SMH stays full-vetoed (2.76 put/call, +13.3% put skew into a -4.5% session), so every chip is capped Weak; the cleanest ungated flow is Robinhood, and SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion is the day's one fresh catalyst.

Iran-relief risk-on, but the leadership rotates — money moves out of the crashed memory complex into oversold large-cap software while an SMH full veto caps every chip name, leaving Comcast's split and Rocket Lab's Iridium deal as the only fresh, un-vetoed catalysts.