Sign in Subscribe

Morgan Branch

When Earnings Replace Economics.

Bank earnings and an ASML blowout steady a tape still bruised by the US-China chip fight, but the clean stories — Liquidia's settlement pop, Arrowhead's Alzheimer's data — are already told, so the watchlist stays empty with the Fed semi-blind in the shutdown data blackout.

Shakey Supply Chain

Bank earnings open the season — Goldman and UnitedHealth beat, JPMorgan misses — while the memory/storage complex buckles on a China DRAM scare; oil stays bid on Hormuz and no name clears to a card ahead of tomorrow's September CPI.

24-Year Yields and $93 Oil.

Risk-off: 10-year yields near 24-year highs and a 4.9% oil spike on fresh Iran strike-option reports pressure a record-priced tape; semis stay gated on distribution and the two big movers (HAE +16%, argenx −13%) are resolved binaries — no clean single-name signal, so no card.

Lower Together.

Record highs meet a 5% bond market: a firmer dollar and ~5.3% 10-year pull gold, chips and crypto lower together into dark federal data and this afternoon's Fed minutes — a broad exhale, not a single-name signal, so the watchlist stays empty.

The Power Bill for AI.

Fresh records on AI meet a 5.3% ten-year; the cleanest stories are off-index — the power trade (Constellation's Amazon nuclear deal, Vistra's loan package) and McKesson's $5.8B bid for Option Care — but all are resolved gaps, so the watchlist stays empty.

Slow Growth, but High Highs.

A record-high tape waits on Wednesday's Fed minutes while the gap board fills with deals already done — two takeovers, a vaccine readout and a Brazil election rally — none of it a cardable single-name flow signal.

Shutdown and Blind Faith.

The government shutdown goes into Day 2 and the jobs report goes dark, yet futures hold firm — the board is all resolved stories (onsemi's richer all-cash bid for Synaptics, Nike's guide-down, a Toshiba-driven storage selloff), so there is no fresh single-name flow to card.

First Dibs.

The index rises on AI while the bond market breaks: a 10-year above 5.3% pulls the average stock lower under a narrow Micron-and-Accenture melt-up — both resolved earnings gaps, not fresh single-name signals, so the watchlist stays empty.

PCE Print, Micron Tonight.

Futures idle into the 8:30 PCE print; the pre-market board is thematic — a Moderna downgrade fade, an HPE investor-day pop, Cal-Maine's earnings miss — with no clean single-name flow, so the watchlist stays empty into Micron's print tonight.

Waiting to Exhale.

Oil and long-end yields exhale into a heavy data week, but the pre-market board is all resolved stories — a Huntington's-trial miss, a mortgage-scoring shock, a used-car beat — none with the fresh single-name flow to earn a card ahead of Micron.